智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利的包裹航班追踪器显示，围绕正常季节性变化的波动较为温和。其中，联邦快递(FDX.US)的表现略胜一筹，而联合包裹(UPS.US)和亚马逊(AMZN.US)则低于正常的季节性模式。然而，这三家公司相较于 4 月，其同比下滑情况均有所恶化。
基于航运数据，大摩对包裹公司保持谨慎态度。该行重申联合包裹和联邦快递的“卖出”评级，最新目标价分别为80美元和200美元。
大摩指出，两者的结构性风险包括竞争加剧、疫情后常态化以及电子商务供应链的结构性转变。特有风险包括联合包裹面临的持续劳动力成本压力以及亚马逊的自营化，联邦快递则面临执行风险以及其 DRIVE 计划表现滞后和快递业务表现不佳的情况。
2025 年 5 月，联合包裹的国内航班次数本月环比持平（而平均环比为增长2%，上月环比为增长4%），其同比增长恶化降至21%（上月同比为增长27%）。联邦快递的国内航班次数本月环比增长 2%（平均环比持平，上月环比为增长6%），同比下降 20%（上月同比为降低18%）。
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