The Lottery (ASX:TLC) has reduced downside earnings risk for fiscal 2025, as a recent AU$100 million Powerball jackpot helped lift turnover to near-market expectations, according to a Tuesday note by Jarden Research.

The firm now estimates second-half turnover to date at AU$3.3 billion, or 93% of market expectations.

Jarden views TLC as a high-quality business, citing its exclusive long-term licenses, strong pricing power, asset-light model, and resilience to economic cycles.

However, Jarden does not expect capital management initiatives until there is clarity on the Victorian license renewal, calling a longer license term or reduced tax rate potentially value-accretive.

Jarden maintained TLC's overweight rating but raised its price target to AU$5.35 from AU$5.15.