金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，创新价值实现+业绩预期改善驱动股价复苏：港股处方药板块年初以来表现亮眼，市场的核心关注点包括大型BD出海交易（包括交易预期）、基本面预期变化。板块层面2025年度卖方一致预测EPS自年初以来上修约2%，但公司之间差异较大，上修幅度较大的多为创新品种上市节奏较快、基本面持续向好、和/或有BD交易的企业，股价表现也相对较强。该机构指，核心经营业务估值仍具吸引力：当前港股处方药板块平均前瞻市盈率略高于过去五年均值0.4个标准差（不包括恒瑞），对应约2倍PEG（不包括恒瑞）。虽然板块表观估值水平较高，但剔除BD合作后的核心业务估值仍具吸引力。考虑到创新驱动下长期成长确定性持续提升，该机构认为未来仍有估值上修空间。该机构重点推荐先声药业(02096)，并建议重点关注翰森(03692)、中生(01177)、通化东宝等存在出海或业绩催化的标的。该机构上调翰森及中生的目标价，将科伦药业下调至中性评级，并维持恒瑞(01276)和石药(01093)的中性评级。
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