智通财经APP获悉，麦格理发布研报称，预计周大福(01929)2025财年下半年收入同比下降15%。营运利润同比增长15%，超出该行预期13%及市场共识11%。净利润同比增长74%，超出该行预期24%。麦格理相信，周大福凭借金饰需求复苏及效率提升，2026财年将实现稳健的盈利增长，将周大福置于精选买入名单，予“跑赢大市”评级。基于2026财年15倍预测市盈率不变，该行将周大福目标价下调1.4%至14.1港元。
该行表示，得益于金价上涨及有利的产品组合，预计周大福2025财年下半年毛利率同比扩张4.8个百分点至28%。营运利润率同比上升4.1个百分点。对于2026财年，因金价上涨的效益预计将逐步消退，周大福预测毛利率将减少约80至130个基点，而营运利润率(OPM)将有较温和的同比下降60至100个基点。该行认为，若金价恢复上涨趋势，其营运利润率指引存在上行空间。
麦格理将周大福2026及2027财年净收入预测分别下调1.6%和1.9%，以反映全年指引及金价波动因素。该行将周大福2026及2027财年息税前利润率预测分别下调0.2个百分点及0.2个百分点，以反映较低的毛利率估计及营运杠杆。
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