普来仕亚太区多元资产解决方案主管Thomas Poullaouec表示,由于估值偏高,对股票尤其是美股持审慎态度,但看好盈利前景更具竞争力,并且有望受惠政刺激措施的欧洲和新兴市场股票。在预期市场波动的环境下,对现金维持偏高比重,因其提供吸引的回报率和流动性。 该行指,环球经济日益受压,贸易冲突的影响正威胁环球经济增长前景。由于生产成本上升将侵蚀企业利润,消费品关税料将会削弱实质购买力,对占美国当地生产总值七成的消费开支带来冲击,美国经济增长面临下行风险。
另外,Poullaouec预期美联储在年底前只会降息一次,甚至不降息,作为金融环境收紧的一部分。他指,金融状况在第二季出乎意料地松动,意味着美联储有机会在按兵不动下保持利率稳定,制造一点紧缩,借此移除一些已被市场定价的降息预期。
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