U.S. stocks could be in for a bumpy ride next month, historically one of the strongest for the S&P 500. A host of risks tied to President Donald Trump's agenda come due as markets enter what could be a crucial second-quarter earnings season.

The president's tendency to delay his ultimate decisions on issues, as well as the mechanics required to pass the mammoth piece of fiscal legislation he pushed for earlier this year, mean July will include a series of deadlines. They are likely to be significant for both U.S. stocks and global markets.

The S&P 500 has typically recorded solid gains in July, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Since 1950, the benchmark has risen 45 times in July, for an average gain of 1.3%.

That seasonal fuel could come in handy as the spring rally, which has taken the S&P 500 more than 20% from its early April lows, stalls into the final weeks of June. The benchmark, in fact, is only up 0.5% over the past month.

The first issue, which has the potential to drive markets over the second half of the year is likely to arrive early, on July 4. That is when the Senate would like to have its version of the Republican tax-and-spending bill ready for a floor vote before its traditional summer recess.

The bill, which is forecast to add around $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next 10 years, also aims to lift the limit on the national debt by $5 trillion. It must pass through both houses of Congress to avoid the risk that the Treasury could default on its debt later in the summer.

Bond markets, acutely aware of the implications for both the deficit and the debt ceiling, could tumble if the Senate's version of the legislation is significantly different from the House legislation. That would send yields higher, weighing on stocks.

Just a few days later, on July 9, the president's 90-day pause on the so-called reciprocal tariffs he put in place in April will expire. Unless a flurry of agreements are reached over the next few weeks, that is likely to either trigger sweeping levies on America's biggest trading partners, or bring yet more uncertainty as investors await another round of extensions and exemptions from the White House.

"While no meaningful deals have been inked yet, many tariffs have been temporarily reduced or delayed, and all sides seem to be interested in meeting on some common ground -- at some point," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial.

Around the same time, based on the president's comments from earlier this week, the U.S. is expected to have clarified its role in the Israel-Iran conflict. That could have significant implications for global oil markets.

Should the U.S. join Israel in attacks on Tehran's nuclear facilities, or strike at Iran's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an oil price shock could add to inflation pressures. That too could cause investors to pull back from stocks and other riskier assets.

"The uncertainty of the Iran situation leaves us with elevated energy prices, complicating inflation forecasts, and detracts from making advances on negotiating all the unresolved tariffs," said Louis Navellier of Navellier Calculated Investing. "At the same time, the Big Beautiful Bill marches toward the targeted July 4 deadline, with revisions roiling market sectors where incentives are cut."

Results from JPMorgan Chase, meanwhile, will kick off the second- quarter earnings season before the start of trading on July 15. LSEG data suggest collective S&P 500 earnings are likely to rise 5.7% from last year to $528.4 billion, compared with the 13.7% advance over the first three months of the year.

Earnings proved crucial in rescuing the stock market from its slump in early April. While the S&P 500 gained 6% in the two-week relief rally that followed its post Liberation Day trough, better than expected earnings from the so-called Magnificent Seven were the main fuel behind its 20% rally into June.

LSEG data suggest the megacap tech group collectively recorded earnings growth of 16% over the three months ending in March. That compares with just 4.3% for the rest of the S&P 500.

"The stock market's recent strength reflects growing optimism around a soft landing, improving corporate profits and the potential for lower interest rates," said Brian Buetel, managing director at UBS Wealth Management in Boca Raton, Fla. "Earnings season may be the next catalyst for markets that investors are looking for," he added.