金吾财讯 | 华泰证券预计2025年618电商大促季行业增长稳健（双位数水平），主要得益于：1）活动周期同比略有拉长；2）国补行动的助力；3）各平台即时零售场景的投入带动用户线上活跃度提升。其中品牌商家在各大电商平台大力扶持下收获较强增长。展望后续，该机构预计各大电商平台仍将围绕商户经营的提质增效、核心用户的粘性强化等方向展开持续竞争，通过全渠道营销改善商户投产比、借助外卖等高频场景强化用户粘性等仍为核心投入方向。建议关注电商主业平稳，品牌商家优势突出的相关企业，以及即时零售场景为主站电商带来交叉销售潜能的相关企业。该机构认为电商平台作为对接供给与需求的中枢，中长期的竞争力需依赖新需求的创造能力以及稳定的共赢生态。即时零售业态借助对用户即时、偶发需求的有效满足，以及对社会化库存的去化帮助（提升本地商家现金流状况），有望进一步获得用户钱包份额。而在中长期来看，即时零售与直播电商作为电商赛道中效率与体验的两个相对极端，有望与传统货架电商持续共存，从而满足消费者多元分层的消费需求。
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