中信证券研报指出美国当地时间6月21日美国对伊朗三处关键核设施进行打击短期内事件对全球经济与市场的外溢性取决于伊朗的报复

智通财经
23 Jun
中信证券研报指出美国当地时间6月21日美国对伊朗三处关键核设施进行打击短期内事件对全球经济与市场的外溢性取决于伊朗的报复手段潜在选择包括打击美军中东基地、袭扰霍尔木兹海峡、支持代理人间接打击等;当然从历史来看报复行动并非必然采取极端选项而是介于“战略克制”和“全面反击”之间。对大类资产而言中东局势或难以迅速降温短期上各类资产可能重复对突发事件的本能反应后续推演则高度依赖情景假设。中信证券复盘了1970年以来中东地区八场重大冲突的市场影响可总结为以下规律:避险资产黄金较美元更优油价长期仍看供需美股表现与美国军事介入程度和战局走势直接相关而对中国资产并无显著影响。

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