Middle East Escalation Fuels Upside Risk to Energy Prices, GS Says -- Market Talk

Dow Jones

Jun 23

0259 GMT - Oil markets are pricing in a somewhat higher probability of supply disruptions after the latest escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, with the geopolitical risk premium estimated at $12, Goldman Sachs analysts say. "While we still assume no significant disruptions to oil and natural gas supply, the downside risks to energy supply and the upside risk to our energy price forecasts have risen." GS notes that the Polymarket prediction market now sees a high chance of Iran disrupting the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in 2025. A sustained, very large disruption would likely push oil and European natural gas prices above $110/bbl and EUR100/MWhm, respectively. The economic incentives--including for the U.S. and China--to try to prevent such a disruption are strong, GS says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 22, 2025 22:59 ET (02:59 GMT)

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

{"basename":"","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - Tiger Brokers","title":"Tiger Brokers | Global Stocks, Options & Futures Trading App","description":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","keywords":"tiger brokers,tiger trade,tiger brokers singapore,broker online,stock trading in singapore,share trading singapore,brokerage firm singapore,trading app,stock broker singapore,stock trading platforms,trading account","social":{"ogDescription":"Tiger Brokers, one-stop investment in US stocks, SGX stocks, HK stocks, A-shares & other global assets. One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/news/2545463228"},"companyName":"Tiger Brokers"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2545463228\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2545463228?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2025-06-23 10:59","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2545463228","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Middle East Escalation Fuels Upside Risk to Energy Prices, GS Says -- Market Talk","media":"Dow Jones","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     0259 GMT - Oil markets are pricing in a somewhat higher probability of supply disruptions after the latest escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, with the geopolitical risk premium estimated at $12, Goldman Sachs analysts say. \"While we still assume no significant disruptions to oil and natural gas supply, the downside risks to energy supply and the upside risk to our energy price forecasts have risen.\" GS notes that the Polymarket prediction market now sees a high chance of Iran disrupting the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in 2025. A sustained, very large disruption would likely push oil and European natural gas prices above $110/bbl and EUR100/MWhm, respectively. The economic incentives--including for the U.S. and China--to try to prevent such a disruption are strong, GS says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 22, 2025 22:59 ET (02:59 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Middle East Escalation Fuels Upside Risk to Energy Prices, GS Says -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMiddle East Escalation Fuels Upside Risk to Energy Prices, GS Says -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-06-23 10:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     0259 GMT - Oil markets are pricing in a somewhat higher probability of supply disruptions after the latest escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, with the geopolitical risk premium estimated at $12, Goldman Sachs analysts say. \"While we still assume no significant disruptions to oil and natural gas supply, the downside risks to energy supply and the upside risk to our energy price forecasts have risen.\" GS notes that the Polymarket prediction market now sees a high chance of Iran disrupting the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in 2025. A sustained, very large disruption would likely push oil and European natural gas prices above $110/bbl and EUR100/MWhm, respectively. The economic incentives--including for the U.S. and China--to try to prevent such a disruption are strong, GS says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 22, 2025 22:59 ET (02:59 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1668664300.SGD","symbol_name":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","article_id":"2545463228","we_media_id":"106","thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2545463228","pubTimestamp":1750647540,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"Dow Jones","introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"summary":"Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK6000":"餐馆","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","BK6054":"综合支持服务","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","43A.SI":"伟盛有限公司","BK6520":"工商业服务概念","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"GS表示，中东局势升级加剧了能源价格的上行风险——市场讨论","themeId":"7725ed284141b09397df9b1929c3f8bc","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"43A.SI":1},"content_text":"0259 GMT - Oil markets are pricing in a somewhat higher probability of supply disruptions after the latest escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, with the geopolitical risk premium estimated at $12, Goldman Sachs analysts say. \"While we still assume no significant disruptions to oil and natural gas supply, the downside risks to energy supply and the upside risk to our energy price forecasts have risen.\" GS notes that the Polymarket prediction market now sees a high chance of Iran disrupting the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in 2025. A sustained, very large disruption would likely push oil and European natural gas prices above $110/bbl and EUR100/MWhm, respectively. The economic incentives--including for the U.S. and China--to try to prevent such a disruption are strong, GS says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com) \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  June 22, 2025 22:59 ET (02:59 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":true,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}