【券商聚焦】国联民生证券维持小鹏汽车(09868)“买入”评级机构指公司受益于新车周期加速

金吾财讯

Jun 23, 2025

金吾财讯 | 国联民生证券发研报指，小鹏汽车(09868)门店快速扩张，2023Q3至2024Q4门店数量从约300家激增至超过500家。区域分布来看，小鹏门店布局采取“金字塔”策略，资源向长三角、珠三角倾斜，门店占比超30%。城市级别来看，小鹏汽车重点扩展低线级城市门店，同时补全核心城市门店能力。三线及以下城市门店数量从119家提升至245家，占比从24.3%提升至35.7%，二线以上城市补充4S店形门店，补全门店能力。该机构表示，2025年受益于新车周期能力稳步向上，小鹏店效趋于稳步增长。1-3月店效分别为46.91/37.07/46.36辆，一季度店效环比增长10.5%。分车型及城市级别的店效来看，2025年MonaM03的低线城市渗透能力和P7+的高线城市聚焦能力共同构成绝对主力。传统车型呈现差异化收缩态势，G6/G9改款/换代实现销量提升。该机构续指，受益于新车周期加速、单店销售能力提升，该机构预计小鹏汽车2025-2027年销量分别为52.4/78.6/96.6万辆，对应2025-2027年总营业收入为977.6/1581.0/1970.7亿元。归母净利润分别为1.2/60.0/94.2亿元。维持“买入”评级。

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