金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券发研报指，上半年钢铁板块小幅上涨，板材、特钢等表现较好。钢铁板块2025年上半年上涨1.23%；在板块三级子行业中，2025年上半年板材、特钢子板块涨幅居前，涨幅分别为5.39%、4.23%。从需求侧看，一系列利好政策有望带来下游基建和制造业钢铁需求回升；从供给侧看，2024年5月29日，国务院在《2024—2025年节能降碳行动方案》中提出加强钢铁产能产量调控，行业集中度提升和供需格局有望改善，钢铁行业表现有望触底反弹。该机构表示，近年来钢铁行业景气度偏弱，个股回落到较低估值，我们认为随着行业供需格局的改善，龙头钢企的盈利能力和估值有望迎来修复。从供给侧看，产业政策持续显效，钢铁产能呈收缩趋势，行业集中度有望持续提升；从需求侧看，两新政策助力下游制造业投资加速，行业有望受益于制造业升级和AI转型。
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