August futures take over as NYMEX front-month
September futures trade at premium to August for first time this week
Energy firms likely added less gas than usual into storage this week
By Scott DiSavino
June 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Friday as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants started to edge up after weeks as more plants exit spring maintenance reductions.
On their first day as the front-month, gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 10.5 cents, or 3.0%, from where the August contract closed on Thursday to $3.631 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:06 a.m. EDT (1306 GMT).
That put the front-month up about 12% from where the July contract closed on Thursday when it was still the front-month. On Thursday, the front-month closed at its lowest since May 28 for a second day in a row.
Even though meteorologists forecast the weather will remain hotter than normal for at least the next two weeks, those temperatures were not expected to return to the highs seen earlier this week.
In fact, some analysts have started to say the market may have already seen its highest price for the summer when it hit $4.15 per mmBtu on June 20 in anticipation of this week's heat.
Futures for September 2025 started trading at a premium over August 2025 NGQ25-U25 for the first time ever three days ago as the market bets supplies will be lower, demand will be higher and/or the surplus of gas in storage above normal levels will be lower (or even in a deficit) in September.
After adding more gas into storage than usual for 10 weeks in a row, analysts projected energy firms likely injected less gas than usual into inventories this week as power generators burned lots of the fuel to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming during a brutal heat wave. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, up from 105.2 bcfd in May, but still below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring pipeline maintenance earlier in the month.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least July 12.
With more summer heat still to come, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 103.9 bcfd this week to 106.0 bcfd next week and the week after. The forecasts for this week and next week were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 14.2 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. The feedgas average for June, however, was up a bit from where it was earlier in the month as units at some LNG plants returned from maintenance reductions.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at a four-week low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a two-week low of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker $(JMM)$ JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Jun 27 Forecast | Week ended Jun 20 Actual | Year ago Jun 27 | Five-year average Jun 27 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +51 | +96 | +35 | +61 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,949 | 2,898 | 3,129 | 2,780 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.1% | +6.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.60 | 3.53 | 2.81 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.35 | 11.59 | 10.87 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.33 | 13.54 | 12.30 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 230 | 234 | 227 | 192 | 184 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 234 | 238 | 231 | 197 | 190 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 105.7 | 106.2 | 105.9 | 103.0 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 113.7 | 114.1 | 113.4 | N/A | 104.1 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.5 | 6.0 | 6.5 | N/A | 6.3 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.7 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 9.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
U.S. Residential | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 38.9 | 43.8 | 45.2 | 44.2 | 38.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.2 | 22.3 | 22.2 | 21.7 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.7 | 81.9 | 82.9 | 81.4 | 76.8 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.5 | 103.9 | 106.0 | N/A | 88.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 77 | 77 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 79 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 80 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jun 27 | Week ended Jun 20 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 40 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 18 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 16 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.23 | 3.26 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.44 | 2.52 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.21 | 3.17 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.29 | 2.33 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.80 | 2.87 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.56 | 2.63 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.62 | 3.60 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.66 | 1.75 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.82 | 0.40 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 35.75 | 42.58 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 52.36 | 78.93 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 37.34 | 35.65 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 38.69 | 35.94 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 28.05 | 28.07 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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