US natgas prices climb 3% on slow increase in flows to LNG export plants

Reuters
27 Jun
US natgas prices climb 3% on slow increase in flows to LNG export plants

August futures take over as NYMEX front-month

September futures trade at premium to August for first time this week

Energy firms likely added less gas than usual into storage this week

By Scott DiSavino

June 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Friday as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants started to edge up after weeks as more plants exit spring maintenance reductions.

On their first day as the front-month, gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 10.5 cents, or 3.0%, from where the August contract closed on Thursday to $3.631 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:06 a.m. EDT (1306 GMT).

That put the front-month up about 12% from where the July contract closed on Thursday when it was still the front-month. On Thursday, the front-month closed at its lowest since May 28 for a second day in a row.

Even though meteorologists forecast the weather will remain hotter than normal for at least the next two weeks, those temperatures were not expected to return to the highs seen earlier this week.

In fact, some analysts have started to say the market may have already seen its highest price for the summer when it hit $4.15 per mmBtu on June 20 in anticipation of this week's heat.

Futures for September 2025 started trading at a premium over August 2025 NGQ25-U25 for the first time ever three days ago as the market bets supplies will be lower, demand will be higher and/or the surplus of gas in storage above normal levels will be lower (or even in a deficit) in September.

After adding more gas into storage than usual for 10 weeks in a row, analysts projected energy firms likely injected less gas than usual into inventories this week as power generators burned lots of the fuel to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming during a brutal heat wave. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, up from 105.2 bcfd in May, but still below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring pipeline maintenance earlier in the month.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least July 12.

With more summer heat still to come, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 103.9 bcfd this week to 106.0 bcfd next week and the week after. The forecasts for this week and next week were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 14.2 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. The feedgas average for June, however, was up a bit from where it was earlier in the month as units at some LNG plants returned from maintenance reductions.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at a four-week low of around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a two-week low of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker $(JMM)$ JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Jun 27 Forecast

Week ended Jun 20 Actual

Year ago Jun 27

Five-year average

Jun 27

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+51

+96

+35

+61

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,949

2,898

3,129

2,780

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+6.1%

+6.6%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.60

3.53

2.81

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.35

11.59

10.87

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.33

13.54

12.30

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

4

4

4

5

6

U.S. GFS CDDs

230

234

227

192

184

U.S. GFS TDDs

234

238

231

197

190

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

105.7

106.2

105.9

103.0

96.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.9

7.5

N/A

7.3

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

113.7

114.1

113.4

N/A

104.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.6

1.8

1.8

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.5

6.0

6.5

N/A

6.3

U.S. LNG Exports

13.7

14.2

14.8

12.7

9.1

U.S. Commercial

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.8

U.S. Residential

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.7

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

38.9

43.8

45.2

44.2

38.0

U.S. Industrial

22.2

22.3

22.2

21.7

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.8

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

76.7

81.9

82.9

81.4

76.8

Total U.S. Demand

99.5

103.9

106.0

N/A

88.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

77

77

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

79

79

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

80

80

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 27

Week ended Jun 20

2024

2023

2022

Wind

12

10

11

10

11

Solar

7

8

5

4

3

Hydro

5

6

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

1

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

40

40

42

41

38

Coal

18

17

16

17

21

Nuclear

16

18

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.23

3.26

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.44

2.52

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.21

3.17

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.29

2.33

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.80

2.87

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.56

2.63

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.62

3.60

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.66

1.75

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.82

0.40

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

35.75

42.58

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

52.36

78.93

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

37.34

35.65

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

38.69

35.94

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

28.05

28.07

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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