比推消息，美股在 2025 年逆势上扬，距离历史高点仅有一线之隔。但标普 500 指数越高，人们对其估值倍数泡沫化的担忧就越强烈。数据显示，该指数以未来 12 个月预期利润计算的市盈率为 22 倍，比长期平均值高出 35%。在美国银行策略师追踪的 20 个此类估值指标中，该指数在每一个指标上都显示出过高的估值。嘉信理财高级投资策略师 Kevin Gordon 表示：“市场当前的水平是可持续的，但在‘从这里开始’的问题上我们无法有很高的信心。下半年盈利的乐观预期可能过高，再加上倍数接近周期高点，这会使得盈利必须超出预期。”除盈利增长外，策略师还表示，美联储的大幅降息将是该指数缩小基本面和市场价格差距的另一种方式。
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