** UBS downgrades Universal Music Group UMG.AS to "neutral" from "buy", citing the September 2024 CMD targets

** UBS notes UMG shares are up 24% year-to-date and believes paid streaming growth is already reflecting in the share price

** The broker says Q2 results, due in July, could be a negative catalyst, with the broker's estimates slightly below consensus on paid streaming growth and EBITDA margins

** "UMG's cash flow return on investments (CFROI) been declining" from 17% to 14% in 2024 the broker says, adding that it expects CFROI to fall further in 2025

** CFROI is under pressure due to capital allocation choices and weak operating leverage - UBS

** It suggests potential upside if UMG sells its Spotify stake and limits M&A to return cash to shareholders

** The world's biggest music label shares are down 2.5% at 1157 GMT

** Out of 23 analysts that cover UMG, 13 rate the stock "strong buy" or "buy,"​ eight rate "hold" and two rate the stock "strong sell" or "sell" - LSEG data

(Reporting by Anna Peverieri)

((Anna.peverieri@thomsonreuters.com))