金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，根据滔搏(06110)公告，2026财年1季度公司零售及批发业务的总销售额同比下滑中单位数，延续了上一季度的趋势（2025财年4季度同比下滑中单位数），符合公司预期。展望未来几个季度，该机构认为体育用品市场仍未出现明显恢复动力，行业促销环境仍将持续。管理层表示，1季度零售渠道的跌幅优于批发渠道；线下客流仍然偏软，客流延续上一季度的趋势继续录得双位数下降，该机构认为线下门店的同店压力有机会延续；线上渠道表现较优，带动1季度直营的线上占比提升至40%（2025财年线上占比30-40%）。鉴于持续的促销趋势，下调公司2026-27财年盈利预测：2026财年2季度以来，行业的促销氛围仍然较浓，618促销力度未减。该机构认为未来几个季度销售恢复速度可能较为缓慢，折扣水平短期内或难以收窄。该机构下调2026/27财年收入预测6/8%至258.6亿/267.2亿元人民币，并降低2026/27财年的净利率预测0.9-1.0个百分点，预测2026-28财年净利润为13.0-15.3亿元人民币。该机构下调2026-27财年的净利润预测22%。基于最新的2026财年净利润预测，该机构下调目标价至2.98港元，对应13倍2026财年市盈率，维持中性评级。
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