金吾财讯 | 东吴证券发研报指，周黑鸭(01458)截至2024年，公司零售门店总数已达3031家，2013-2024年营收/归母净利润CAGR分别为6.57%/-8.49%。几经波折，2024年创始人周总重回管理岗位，谋新求变：优化单店模型、重审会员体系、发力流通渠道、迈步全球化等措施成效逐步显现，站在当下时点，该机构认为公司新一轮经营周期或至。该机构表示，创始人周总重新掌舵以来，公司通过产品、门店运营及店员激励等方面优化，实现单店经营质量及店效提升：①产品端，夯实经典款，加速新品布局；②门店战略从规模扩张到积极提质，2022-2024年公司门店数量同比+23%/+11%/-21%，同期单店营收同比34%/+5%/+12%，店效拐点或已至。③贯彻“四季战歌”战略，提升店员积极性，明确奖惩；④2024年以来公司重新搭建会员体系、推广会员制度。通过门店优化，25Q1公司同店店效同比已实现微增、平均单店店效实现同比双位数上涨，全年预计延续这一态势。该机构预计 2025-2027年公司归母净利润分别为1.52/1.88/2.19亿元，同比增速为54.44%/24.02%/16.52%。对应当前，2025-2026年PE为31.23x、25.18x，对比可比公司当下估值具备性价比，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
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