高盛研究报告指，蒙牛乳业(02319.HK) 旗下现代牧业(01117.HK) 发盈警，料上半年净亏损扩大至8亿至10亿元人民币(下同)，而去年同期为亏损2.07亿元，公司解释是由于原奶价格低迷引致的生物资产亏损，料EBITDA可大致按年持平。
报告指，年初至今乳制品零售需求仍然低迷，上半年缩减供应的速度慢过预期，因每头乳牛的单位产量仍在上升、政府对奶牛场财政支持，以及饲料费用下降。不过，公司认为行业将于今年下半年见底，料供应缩减将会加速，大部分奶牛场均处于亏损状态，下半年饲料借贷将减少，以及牛群开始老化。现代牧业料第三季起情况将更稳定，原奶价格亦会反弹。
基于上述情况，该行将蒙牛2025至27年销售预测下调约2%，经常性净利润预测下调约1%，目标价由23港元降至22.8港元，主要因现代牧业的非现金减值亏损；维持“买入”评级，因其在行业下行周期下利润率仍具韧性，以及具成本效益。(ss/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-06-24 16:25。)
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