【Matrixport：比特币技术面支撑稳固，流动性仍显滞后】金色财经报道，Matrixport发布周度报告称，鲍威尔在2025年6月18日的FOMC会议上释放偏鹰派信号，但不到一周美联储整体口风即明显转鸽，多位理事陆续发表宽松论调，鲍威尔本周在国会听证会上也表现得更为缓和。此番转向可能受到政治压力影响，会议结束后不久后特朗普总统公开抨击美联储的紧缩立场，迫使联储迅速修正对外措辞。通胀已回落至2.38%，距美联储2%目标仅一步之遥，继续按兵不动的依据正逐渐削弱。 尽管鲍威尔及部分经济学家曾警告关税或将把通胀重新推至3%以上，但迄今未兑现。失业率也连续近12个月维持在4.2%，与此前预期的就业走软相反。考虑到7月企业回购大多暂停，财报季或将成为主导市场情绪的关键变量之一。 本周初美军空袭伊朗后，比特币一度下探至21周均线(98,532美元)，该水平既是关键的技术支撑位也是多空分水岭。若价格无法及时重回均线上方，市场或面临夏季调整风险。维持“季节性区间震荡”基准并预计联储转鸽基调仍将为比特币提供温和上行支撑，若后续降息信号更明确，逢低布局的风险收益比有望进一步提升。
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