港股异动 | 电力股集体走低 机构称下半年电价利空因素依然较多 火电公司盈利呈分化状态

智通财经
27 Jun

智通财经APP获悉,电力股集体走低,截至发稿,大唐发电(00991)跌6.16%,报1.98港元;华电国际(01071)跌5.12%,报4.08港元;华能国际(00902)跌4.19%,报5.03港元;华润电力(00836)跌2.38%,报18.88港元。

国泰君安期货发布研报称,下半年电价利空因素依然较多。从供给侧看,若按近五年各类机组的平均利用小时测算,全年总发电量预计将达11.6万亿千瓦时,同比增速11.2%。从需求侧看,全年用电量预计为10.4万亿千瓦时,同比增速回落至5.9%。由此推算,全年发用比仅为89.6%,不仅低于历史平均水平,亦与常规线损率区间不匹配,发电设备整体利用率或低于往年均值,电力市场供需趋于宽松。

招商证券指出,今年以来煤炭价格呈现出明显的下行趋势。25年北方地区电价降幅较低,在煤价大幅下行时,北方区域电厂盈利能力改善明显。而机组主要分布在广东、浙江、江苏等省份的公司量价压力相对较大。此外,由于当前现货煤价与长协价倒挂,煤炭长协比例相对较低的企业,业绩改善弹性大,预计全年火电公司盈利依然呈现分化状态。下半年进入26年中长期电价签约阶段,预计广东广西等地区电价降幅相对可控,其他地区预计降幅空间较大。

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