巴克莱研究团队发表季度宏观经济展望报告指，今年上半年美元计价资产的风险溢价上升，归因于美国政策波动，但美国国债收益率可能会突破5%，预计美元或利率出现螺旋式下跌的可能性极低。 美国暂缓开征关税90日期间将于下月9日届满，报告预计，美国在限期届满后可能再次单方面对多国提高关税，并料在未来4至5个月内，美国通胀开始受关税政策影响。报告亦预期，直到明年，西方主要经济体将转向更宽松的货币政策，美国通胀将从关税推升的高位开始回落。 此外，报告预计，美国标普500指数企业盈利今年将增长6%或以上，明年再增长9%，主要动力来自美国科技巨头，例如微软、谷歌、Meta等。上述美国科技巨头在宏观经济放缓时也展现较强的韧性，市场将重新聚焦增长前景，而人工智能将成为重要主题。
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