摩根大通发表研究报告指,耐克2025年第四季度每股收益为0.14美元(略高于市场预期的0.13美元),收入下降12%(优于市场预期降14.8%),毛利率为40.3%(与市场预期持平)。摩通指,管理层指引2026财年首季度报告收入将下降中个位数,毛利率收缩350至425个基点,销售及管理费用将小幅增长,按该行计算,首季每股收益约为0.25美元(低于市场共识0.31美元约19%)。 报告认为,尽管耐克是全球运动市场的领导者,并在产品类别、地理区域及分销渠道上具备多元化优势,但在品牌产品生命周期转型期间,重新加速收入增长的时间将被拉长,尤其全球宏观环境(特别是大中华区与欧洲中东非洲地区的逆风)使前路更加复杂。基于约40倍的2026年预期每股收益,摩通将2025年12月的目标价从56美元上调至64美元,相当于疫情前历史市盈增长率(PEG)2倍,对应2026至2029财年每股收益年均复合增长率约20%,反映过渡性模型复苏,评级“中性”。
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