铜行业专题之一:全球铜矿产量增速已近拐点 重视铜价弹性

广发证券
Jul 01, 2025

核心观点:铜矿:全球长期资本开支压制增量,老矿品位下滑、地缘风险上升使得存量难稳产。据彭博、公司财报,从全球约450 个铜矿项目的统计看,我们预计乐观情况下,2025、2026、2027 年全球铜矿产量增量分别为56、128、47 万吨,对应增速约2.5%、5.6%、1.9%。中性情况下,预计2025、2026、2027 年铜供给增速约为2.0%、3.0%、1.0%,低于2021-2024 年的...

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