水泥股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中国建材(03323)涨5.33%，报3.95港元；西部水泥(02233)涨3.97%，报1.57港元；海螺水泥(00914)涨2.71%，报20.5港元；华新水泥(06655)涨0.57%，报8.85港元。

广发证券发布研报称，预计水泥需求端2025年同比下滑6%，下半年降幅扩大，中长期稳定在新平台期；供给端，Q2错峰执行情况欠佳，下半年有望加强行业自律，政策性“去产能”已在路上；盈利端，上半年盈利同比显著增长，下半年同比有压力，全年中枢大概率同比提升。目前行业估值在历史底部，龙头股息率具备一定吸引力。

天风证券指出，25年以来，水泥企业继续加快推进出海进程，包括海螺水泥柬埔寨产能投产、中国建材收购突尼斯产能并启动哈萨克斯坦新建项目，西部水泥收购收购刚果金CILU以及华新水泥赞比亚改造项目，整体来看，非洲地区人口增速领跑全球，在经济增长及城镇化进程加快推进的驱动下，非洲市场仍是最具潜力的投资蓝海，其中西部水泥、华新水泥已逐渐占据先发优势，随着产能逐步落地，业绩有望进入加速兑现期，继续重点关注。

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