智通财经APP获悉，华尔街大行摩根士丹利发表研报表示，中国宏桥(01378)2025年上半年净利润同比增长35%的预测超出了该行预期，并且相信该公司下半年业绩将保持韧性，维持“增持”评级，目标价18.5港元。
报告指出，中国宏桥预计2025年上半年净利润将达到约124亿元人民币，这一数字超出摩根士丹利的预期。这一增长主要得益于铝业务利润贡献的大幅提升，尤其是在二季度，山东地区自备电厂电价因动力煤价格下跌而下降，以及云南地区水电价格从一季度的0.44元/千瓦时降至二季度的0.38-0.39元/千瓦时，生产成本的降低推动了铝业务盈利。不过，上半年氧化铝业务利润贡献疲软，部分抵消了铝业务的强劲表现。
摩根士丹利认为，尽管处于消费淡季，但由于社会库存水平较低，铝价在高位波动，部分反映出熔融铝产量增加和需求依然稳固。此外，铝土矿和电力价格的下降有助于降低生产成本，预计这将继续为铝业务带来愈发稳定的盈利。同时，较高的股息派息率和投资收益率也是吸引投资者的亮点。
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