BlockBeats News, July 3rd, JPMorgan's trading department conducted a simulation exercise showing that if the job data announced on Thursday is similar to the weak trend in the earlier ADP report, the U.S. stock market is likely to experience a significant sell-off. JPMorgan has set out market reactions in different scenarios:
Job Addition 85K-105K: S&P 500 Index may fall 0.25%-1.5%;
Below 85K: S&P 500 Index is at risk of a sharp decline of 2%-3%;
The report warned: "In the worst-case scenario, the market will face stagflation (sluggish economic growth accompanied by high inflation) risk, at which point both fiscal and monetary policy may be ineffective." The report specifically noted: "As long as non-farm payroll data is above 100K, the stock market will still receive support." Of course, job data has also had better-than-expected performance in the past and could happen again. JPMorgan's prediction:
Job Addition 125K-145K: S&P 500 Index may rise 0.75%-1.25%;
Above 145K: S&P 500 Index gains could expand to 1%-1.5%. (Jinshi)
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