Iron-Ore Demand Outlook Looks Soft as Chinese Steel Output Peaks -- Market Talk

Dow Jones

Jul 02, 2025

0105 GMT - Jefferies is downbeat about the outlook for iron-ore demand. It thinks Chinese steel output has peaked and higher-cost capacity will increasingly be cut. That would support an iron-ore price of US$80-US$100/ton, Jefferies says. "With the ramp-up of Simandou, prices will likely average closer to the bottom of that range for the next several years (down from our prior forecast floor of US$90/ton)," Jefferies says. Simandou is the big new iron-ore development in Guinea. Jefferies thinks Fortescue, Rio Tinto and BHP should keep generating strong cash flow from their iron-ore mines. Still, the bank is cautious of the spread to lower-grade iron-ore fines increasing. That would impact Fortescue and Mineral Resources. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 01, 2025 21:05 ET (01:05 GMT)

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It thinks Chinese steel output has peaked and higher-cost capacity will increasingly be cut. That would support an iron-ore price of US$80-US$100/ton, Jefferies says. \"With the ramp-up of Simandou, prices will likely average closer to the bottom of that range for the next several years (down from our prior forecast floor of US$90/ton),\" Jefferies says. Simandou is the big new iron-ore development in Guinea. Jefferies thinks Fortescue, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTNTF\">Rio Tinto</a> and BHP should keep generating strong cash flow from their iron-ore mines. Still, the bank is cautious of the spread to lower-grade iron-ore fines increasing. That would impact Fortescue and Mineral Resources. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  July 01, 2025 21:05 ET (01:05 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Iron-Ore Demand Outlook Looks Soft as Chinese Steel Output Peaks -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIron-Ore Demand Outlook Looks Soft as Chinese Steel Output Peaks -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-02 09:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     0105 GMT - Jefferies is downbeat about the outlook for iron-ore demand. It thinks Chinese steel output has peaked and higher-cost capacity will increasingly be cut. That would support an iron-ore price of US$80-US$100/ton, Jefferies says. \"With the ramp-up of Simandou, prices will likely average closer to the bottom of that range for the next several years (down from our prior forecast floor of US$90/ton),\" Jefferies says. Simandou is the big new iron-ore development in Guinea. Jefferies thinks Fortescue, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTNTF\">Rio Tinto</a> and BHP should keep generating strong cash flow from their iron-ore mines. Still, the bank is cautious of the spread to lower-grade iron-ore fines increasing. That would impact Fortescue and Mineral Resources. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ) \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  July 01, 2025 21:05 ET (01:05 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FMG.AU","symbol_name":"FORTESCUE LTD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","article_id":"2548283142","we_media_id":"106","thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2548283142","pubTimestamp":1751418300,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"Dow Jones","introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"summary":"0105 GMT - Jefferies is downbeat about the outlook for iron-ore demand. It thinks Chinese steel output has peaked and higher-cost capacity will increasingly be cut. That would support an iron-ore price of US$80-US$100/ton, Jefferies says. \"With the ramp-up of Simandou, prices will likely average closer to the bottom of that range for the next several years ,\" Jefferies says. Simandou is the big new iron-ore development in Guinea. Jefferies thinks Fortescue, Rio Tinto and BHP should keep generating strong cash flow from their iron-ore mines. Still, the bank is cautious of the spread to lower-grade iron-ore fines increasing. That would impact Fortescue and Mineral Resources. ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"FMG.AU":"FORTESCUE LTD","BK7129":"钢铁","RIO.AU":"力拓","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK7511":"ESG概念","LU0300736492.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","MIN.AU":"MINERAL RESOURCES LTD","BK7504":"锂钴概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","RIO":"力拓","BHP.AU":"BHP GROUP LTD","BK7507":"资源股","LU0300736062.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BHP":"必和必拓公司","BK4168":"多种金属与采矿"},"translate_title":"随着中国钢铁产量见顶，铁矿石需求前景看起来疲软——市场讨论","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"RIO.AU":0.9,"BHP":0.9,"MIN.AU":0.9,"FMG.AU":0.9,"RIO":0.9,"BHP.AU":0.9},"content_text":"0105 GMT - Jefferies is downbeat about the outlook for iron-ore demand. It thinks Chinese steel output has peaked and higher-cost capacity will increasingly be cut. That would support an iron-ore price of US$80-US$100/ton, Jefferies says. \"With the ramp-up of Simandou, prices will likely average closer to the bottom of that range for the next several years (down from our prior forecast floor of US$90/ton),\" Jefferies says. Simandou is the big new iron-ore development in Guinea. Jefferies thinks Fortescue, Rio Tinto and BHP should keep generating strong cash flow from their iron-ore mines. Still, the bank is cautious of the spread to lower-grade iron-ore fines increasing. That would impact Fortescue and Mineral Resources. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ) \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  July 01, 2025 21:05 ET (01:05 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":true,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}