金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，基于宏观经济温和增长、新能源替代推进，以及石化原料需求释放的核心假设，该机构测算25-27年中国原油需求将稳定在7.6-7.7亿吨，同比增速为0.5%-0.6%，增长引擎从“燃料主导”转向“材料主导”。进一步考虑气头化工等的NGL需求，该机构预计25-27年中国石油需求将逐年增长约1%至8.0-8.2亿吨，由增长期步入弱增的“平台期”。该机构认为中国对全球原油需求增量贡献显著下降，需求达峰叠加OPEC协同趋弱及亚非拉等低成本增量释放，中长期油价下行拐点显现，5-10年内原油市场或进入边际成本影响的买卖双方均衡时代。而伴随国内天然气消费量扩大，炼化行业格局优化，关注具备天然气降本增量、低成本资源开发能力的高分红龙头配置机遇。
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