金吾财讯 | 中信证券研报指出，2025年6月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，失业率低于预期。不过，非农报告实则显示美国就业市场继续走弱。一方面，美国私人部门整体和私人部门服务业新增非农就业人数均为2024年10月受到飓风影响以来的最低值，而且政府部门占新增非农就业人数一半。另一方面，统计方式导致6月失业率下行。然而，不计入劳动力的Discouraged workers人数较快增加本是就业市场走弱的信号。
若将6月新增的25.6万Discouraged workers加回劳动力人数和失业人数计算，则6月的劳动力参与率为62.37%，失业率将上升至4.261%。该机构依旧认为美国就业市场“缓冲垫”有限，就业市场继续走弱失业率或将加快上行。然而，6月4.1%的失业率给了鲍威尔更多“理由”观察夏季关税对通胀的影响，该机构延续此前观点，预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息。
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