金吾财讯 | 中泰国际研报指,中国水务(00855)FY25(年结:3月31日)股东净利润同比下跌29.9%至10.7亿元(港币,下同),低于该机构预测14.8亿元27.1%;另外,其它收益同比上升98.3%至3.6亿元,但是主要归因于非经常事项。虽然如此,FY25供水主业表现理想。供水售水量同比增长7.4%至15.0亿吨,相关供水运营收入同比上升6.5%至35.3亿元,符合该机构预期。FY25期间,两个供水项目获得政府批准上调水价,每日供水能力合共为17.5万吨,但仅占FY25底公司总供水能力730万吨的2.4%。可是2025年4月至今,已经有四个供水项目获批上调水价,每日供水能力合共为67万吨,贡献作用将相对较大。另外两个供水项目正在听证会阶段。公司目标FY26全年合共八至十个供水项目获批上调水价。由于公司加强优化发展步伐,FY25资本开支同比下跌36.2%至约34.0亿元。公司目标FY26资本开支同比大幅降低41.2%至约20.0亿元。这将提供空间维持高分红政策。公司维持FY25每股股息为0.28元,与FY24持平,该机构预期FY26可延续。主要基于假设接驳及建设收入将少于原先估算,该机构分别降低FY26-27预测11.1%及10.3%,并相应将目标价由7.22港元下调至6.80港元,对应13.0%上升空间及9.0倍FY26市盈率。经过近月股价持续涨势,上行空间渐收窄,该机构将评级由“买入”调整至“增持”。
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