房地产链白皮书:房地产篇:周期往复 大浪淘金 胜者为王

申万宏源研究
04 Jul

房地产指标:地产指标相互勾稽,前端筑底、后端弱。从房地产项目周期看,项目开发需要3-4 年,单项目需经历拿地-规划设计-开工-施工-预售-竣工交付流程;从总量视角看,市场参与者众多、且运营决策具备独立性及前瞻性,因此总量指标并未完全呈现出项目周期特点。我们发现,众多指标中销售是最前瞻性指标,销售从2014-18 年去库存阶段领先拿地,到18 年后销投同步化,往后看供给侧出清过度、中短期仍会出现销售...

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