国泰海通证券复盘2020—2021年稀土板块行情，认为稀土板块股价上涨均大致分为三阶段：（1）商品价格底部确认，远期估值修复。（2）超额利润消化估值，行业龙头白马随订单成长。（3）景气度爆发，价格上涨加速，板块普涨。当前处于板块行情第二阶段，静待内外盘涨价共振。由于2025年2月以来稀土商品价格到目前涨幅不大，因此板块整体是缓慢向上。但随着后续海外补库需求传导叠加国内新能源汽车旺季来临，稀土价格有望继续上涨，带动板块向第三阶段过渡（即商品价格、股价共振上行）。随着稀土价格中枢抬升，国内稀土磁材企业有望迎来业绩、估值双击，优选资源、磁材端龙头企业。
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