With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 19x in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s (NYSE:LNG) P/E ratio of 17.2x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
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Cheniere Energy hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
View our latest analysis for Cheniere Energy
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Cheniere Energy's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 34%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 0.2% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's curious that Cheniere Energy's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of Cheniere Energy's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Having said that, be aware Cheniere Energy is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Cheniere Energy. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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