MARKET SNAPSHOT

U.S. stocks set another round of records after a stronger-than-expected June jobs report. Treasury yields rose and the U.S. dollar strengthened after the above-forecast June payrolls data. Oil futures fell amid trepidation about likely OPEC+ production increases. Gold fell but its weekly gain broke a two-week losing streak.

MARKET WRAPS

EQUITIES

Stocks climbed to new records after the stronger-than-expected June jobs report defied expectations that uncertainty over trade and fiscal policy would hurt the labor market.

The Labor Department said that U.S. payrolls rose by 147,000 in June and the jobless rate stood at 4.1%. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see 110,000 extra jobs last month, with unemployment at 4.3%.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to post its seventh record close this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq also finished at an all-time closing high, its fourth this year, rising 1%.

U.S. markets closed at 1 p.m ahead of the Independence Day holiday.

Stocks in China rose Thursday, as the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended 0.2% higher. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.95%, and the ChiNext Price Index gained 1.9%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.6%.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average increased 0.1%.

Stocks in Australia were flat, as the S&P/ASX 200 held steady.

In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 fell 0.6%, snapping a five-session winning streak.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures settled lower in quiet, range-bound trade ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend.

After yesterday's rally on renewed Middle East geopolitical risk premium, the market was restrained by the widely held view that OPEC+ will agree to bring back another 411,000 barrels a day in August.

Analysts at Citi expect the group may elect to pause production unwinds until after August as summer demand eases and non-OPEC+ supply accelerates.

"Still, the recent sharp swings in oil prices suggest financial positioning should have returned to neutral levels, which could offer room for a limited and brief sell-off on OPEC+ headlines of another 411,000 b/d quota unwind," the analysts said.

West Texas Intermediate settled down 0.7% at $67.00 a barrel, and Brent slipped 0.4% to $68.80.

Gold's weekly gain broke a two-week losing streak, with the contract finishing the week up 1.8% to $3,331.60 a troy ounce--which includes a loss of 0.5% on the day.

"The trend in gold is unquestionably favoured to the upside, with the latest selloff likely to be viewed as a dip-buying opportunity amid a cautious Fed and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields since late May," said Aaron Hill of FP Markets.

Some traders expect gold to climb to as much as $4,000 an ounce.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Steady Hiring Added 147,000 Jobs to U.S. Economy in June

U.S. job growth continued at a steady pace last month, surprising economists who had predicted a slowdown in hiring amid uncertainty over trade and fiscal policy.

The country added 147,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department reported Thursday, above the gain of 110,000 jobs economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.

June Jobs Report Likely to Extend Fed's Summer Pause

The June jobs report is likely to keep Federal Reserve officials in their wait-and-see stance for the summer as they anxiously observe how significant trade and immigration policy changes influence pricing and job-staffing decisions by American businesses.

Most Fed officials haven't made much of an effort to build the case for rate cuts at their next meeting, July 29-30, even though two officials have said they are open to lowering rates.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested that rate cuts are possible later this year, particularly if inflation readings this summer are milder than anticipated. At a conference in Portugal on Tuesday, he declined to provide any guidance about the July meeting. "It's going to depend on the data, and we are going meeting by meeting," he said.

House Passes Trump's Megabill in GOP Triumph

WASHINGTON-The House narrowly passed Republicans' sprawling tax-and-spending bill, delivering a major second-term victory for President Trump and again demonstrating his power to keep GOP lawmakers in line.

The 218-214 vote Thursday sends the measure to Trump's desk, ahead of the July 4 target he set for Congress to finish the legislation that cuts taxes, boosts border security and lowers social safety-net spending. Trump and GOP leaders muscled the bill through the House after an all-night session, despite many lawmakers' misgivings about the version the Senate passed 51-50 earlier this week.

Two Republicans-Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania-voted with all Democrats against the "one big, beautiful bill." The vote followed a long day of negotiations with conservative and moderate holdouts, with Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) eventually swaying enough members to prevail.

Biggest part of the U.S. economy rebounds from trade-war blues. But it's still weak.

The large service side of the economy rebounded in June after a brief slump in the prior month when U.S. trade wars were at their zenith and companies were paralyzed by indecision.

The services index of the Institute for Supply Management rose to 50.8% last month from 49.9% in May, the ISM said Thursday. Any number above 50% signals expansion.

The services sector has powered the economy since the pandemic, but it hasn't been immune to disruptions caused by higher U.S. tariffs. New duties on foreign goods have raised the cost of supplies and raised doubts about how fast the economy will grow.

Vietnam Trade Deal Takes Aim at Back Door for Chinese Goods

SINGAPORE-A tariff agreement with Vietnam emphasizes one of the White House's top priorities in this frantic round of dealmaking over global trade: slamming shut any backdoor routes for Chinese goods to enter the U.S.

A key provision of the Vietnam deal announced by President Trump Wednesday is that goods "transshipped" to the U.S. through Vietnam would be subject to a punitive 40% tariff, twice the 20% rate Trump said he is applying to regular imports from Vietnam.

The president didn't mention China explicitly and the exact details of how such rerouting will be defined and policed are unclear. Nevertheless, analysts say the measure appears squarely aimed at making it harder for firms to use the Southeast Asian nation as a staging post to ship goods to the U.S. from China while sidestepping the steep levies that Chinese imports would typically face.

Expected Major Events for Friday

00:30/HK: Jun Hong Kong Whole Economy PMI

01:00/PHI: Jun CPI

02:00/JPN: Jun Imported Vehicle Sales

05:00/SIN: May Retail Sales

07:30/THA: Weekly International Reserves

08:20/TAI: Jun International Reserves

08:59/JPN: May Household Spending

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 03, 2025 16:59 ET (20:59 GMT)

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