金吾财讯 | 摩根资产管理环球多资产策略师盛楠表示，预期美国第二季GDP数据保持稳健，即使贸易不确定性可能减慢下半年经济增长，但衰退风险可控，于2026年，美国财政及税收方案的影响将会推动经济增长重回趋势水平。摩根资管看好美国科技及通讯服务板块，并看到日股、港股及新兴市场股票具投资价值。盛楠指，预期关税似乎只会暂时推升通胀，核心通胀可能在第四季见顶，或高见3.8%，并在2026年逐步回落，到明年第四季回到美联储的目标。美联储主席鲍威尔维持鹰派的口径，并密切关注通胀风险。利率方面，虽然美联储及市场预期今年将降息两次，但鉴于劳动市场持续维持韧性，且下半年通胀风险上升，摩根资管预期今年美联储仅降息一次，于2026年待通胀回落后将再降息两次。
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