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转自：新华财经

新华财经北京7月4日电 华泰证券研报表示，2025年第二季度地缘冲突和关税政策等多重因素影响下，Brent油价于60—80美元／桶大幅波动，伴随原油均价中枢下移，预计上游油气开采企业盈利同比下滑为主，炼油企业由于库存损失及炼化产品景气偏弱等，盈利仍底部徘徊.

中游大宗化工受关税政策和淡季等影响，叠加供给相对过剩，企业盈利仍处于磨底期，等待供给拐点及需求增量，部分白马龙头企业及供需格局较好的子行业显盈利韧性。

下游精细品及化学制品成本端延续改善，叠加出海增量和下游军工、汽车、家电等需求较好，盈利或延续改善态势，但关税政策等影响下预计改善幅度较为有限，军工材料、塑料制品等子行业表现或相对较好。

编辑：刘铭

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