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格隆汇7月4日｜华泰证券研报表示，2025年政府工作报告明确提出将“制定促进生育政策，发放育儿补贴”。通过对国内外生育政策的典型案例复盘，华泰证券认为：1、公共财政对家庭福利的补贴力度是影响生育率的重要因素之一；2、我国家庭福利补贴仍有加码空间，尤其在包括生育补贴的直接补贴方面可以进一步提升；3、地方的生育补贴试点效果总体积极，其受惠群体受限的不足或需要通过全国性补贴来补充。华泰证券认为全国性的生育补贴政策有望在年内落地，考虑与地方生育补贴的互补，预计全国性的生育补贴或重点聚焦3岁以下的婴幼儿家庭，将首孩纳入补贴范围，并保持较强的补贴力度（若按年均支出的15%计约3600元/年）。
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