The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1528 ET - Crude futures settle lower in quiet, range-bound trade ahead of the U.S. holiday weekend. After yesterday's rally on renewed Middle East geopolitical risk premium, the market was restrained by the widely held view that OPEC+ will agree to bring back another 411,000 barrels a day in August. Analysts at Citi expect the group may elect to pause production unwinds until after August as summer demand eases and non-OPEC+ supply accelerates. "Still, the recent sharp swings in oil prices suggest financial positioning should have returned to neutral levels, which could offer room for a limited and brief sell-off on OPEC+ headlines of another 411,000 b/d quota unwind," they say in a note. WTI settles down 0.7% at $67.00 a barrel, and Brent slips 0.4% to $68.80. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1503 ET - U.S. natural gas futures fall going into the long weekend with its risks of shifts in weather forecasts that could alter demand expectations. "The weather data is decently hot for most of the next 15 days but with much of the heat focused over the western half of the U.S.," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Among weather risks is a low-pressure system off Florida likely to bring cooling showers up the mid-Atlantic Coast, the forecaster adds. The 55 Bcf weekly storage build reported by the EIA was slightly above expectations and slightly below average, prompting a loss of early upward price momentum. Nymex natural gas settles down 2.3% at $3.409/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1418 ET - President Trump is scheduled to speak at the Iowa State Fair tonight. Grain traders are placing their bets on what he might announce during the speech. "The bulls argue that Trump would not head to the heart of America to start the Independence Day celebration if he was not going to announce something substantial," AgResource says in a note. The firm adds that instituting a nationwide ethanol blending standard of E15 is also a possibility for tonight. Most-active corn is up 0.5% and soybeans are up 0.1% late in the session, while wheat is down 1.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1327 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by seven this week to 425 and was down by 54 from a year ago, oil services company Baker Hughes reports. Natural gas rigs slipped by one to 108, or seven more than a year ago. In the Dallas Fed's second-quarter survey of energy companies in Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico, almost half of the executives said they expect to drill fewer wells this year than they had planned at the start of 2025. If oil were to hold at $60 a barrel, 61% of companies said they would expect a small decrease in their firms' oil production over the next year. At $50 a barrel, 46% of firms would expect a significant drop. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1215 ET - Oil futures give back some of yesterday's gains ahead of the long U.S. weekend. Limiting enthusiasm is Sunday's planned OPEC+ meeting where members are expected to agree on the return of another 411,000 barrels a day of voluntary output cuts. Traders are also digesting yesterday's EIA inventory report that showed an unexpected 3.8 million barrel crude stock build, and remain wary about next week's U.S. tariff deadline. On the positive side, U.S. June payrolls were better than expected and the unemployment rate fell, although resulting dollar gains could limit crude upside. WTI is off 0.9% at $66.84 a barrel, and Brent is down 0.7% at $68.60. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1130 ET - Russian oil shipments from the Arctic to Syria have surged past 6 million barrels so far this year, according to Kpler. The data provider's tracking indicates another delivery of Russian Arctic-origin crude at Syria's Baniyas port around June 28, marking the seventh cargo delivered in 2025. This follows the suspension of Iranian oil shipments after the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in late 2024, according to the firm. "While the U.S. has lifted most economic sanctions on Syria, the country has yet to import crude from any producers other than Russia," says Ying Cong Loh, market analyst at Kpler. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1122 ET - While Canada's goods-trade deficit with the world narrowed in May, the country's energy surplus narrowed to the lowest level in nearly four years, National Bank of Canada's Jocelyn Paquet notes. That was partly due to continued soft oil prices for the month, but also to a decline in export volumes, the economist says. Energy volumes have now fallen 9.2% since December, the largest five-month drop since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1122 ET - Saudi Arabia's crude exports climbed to their highest level in more than two years last month, as the kingdom shipped significant volumes to overseas storage facilities amid heightened supply disruption risks in the region, Kpler data shows. June crude exports rose to 6.4 million barrels a day--8.5% above the p8revious month and the highest since June 2023. "The increase reflects strategic measures to maintain supply stability amid heightened regional tensions, including pre-positioning vessels and reallocating cargoes, rather than a surge in demand or sales," says Fred Asiedu, market analyst at Kpler. "Saudi Arabia quickly acted to demonstrate it remained a steady, reliable supplier." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1115 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 55 billion cubic feet last week to 2,953 Bcf, making a small dent in the surplus over the five-year average, EIA data show. The injection was slightly smaller than the 2020-2024 average build for the week of 61 Bcf, and a bit above the 51 Bcf estimate in a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. The increase left storage 173 Bcf or 6.2% above the five-year average, and 176 Bcf below the year-earlier level. Nymex natural gas futures lose momentum following the report, trading down 0.8% at $3.459/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0926 ET - U.S. natural gas futures rise above $3.50 support with weekly storage data expected to show a first below-average injection in several months. With the report covering "the first notable heat of the summer," a surprise reading could become an outsized market catalyst, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Natural gas inventories are expected to have increased by 51 Bcf to 2,949 Bcf, reducing the surplus over the five-year average by 10 Bcf to 169 Bcf. Nymex natural gas is up 1.1% at $3.526/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0904 ET - Crude futures are steady ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Expectations of OPEC+ agreeing this weekend to unwind another 411,000 barrels a day of output cuts in August keep a damper on further gains, while U.S. June payrolls come in above estimates. A better-than-expected jobs report could affect oil demand expectations for the rest of the summer, Ritterbusch says in a note, while a stronger U.S. dollar as a result could limit additional oil price strength. WTI slips 0.1% to $67.41 a barrel and Brent is off 0.1% at $68.99.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0350 ET - Oil prices fall in early trade as major OPEC+ producers are soon expected to announce another large output hike and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs persists. Brent crude slides 1% to $68.39 a barrel, while WTI is down 1.1% to $66.70 a barrel. Crude futures settled 3% higher in the previous session after Iran suspended cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog and Washington signed a trade deal with Vietnam. However, "we could see tariff increases reinstated on some U.S. trading partners if trade deals are not concluded," ING analysts say. "This leaves a fair amount of uncertainty going into next week." Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories rose for the first time in six weeks as imports increased and exports fell sharply from the week before. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 03, 2025 15:28 ET (19:28 GMT)

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