Odaily星球日报讯 BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 近日撰文指出,美国财政部支持由 TBTF 的大型银行发行稳定币,是其应对巨额财政赤字和国债压力的关键政策之一。他认为,这将释放高达 6.8 万亿美元的短期国债(T-bill)购买力,并推动金融市场上涨。 同时,若美联储终止对银行准备金支付利息(IORB),还将释放额外 3.3 万亿美元资金流入国债市场。Arthur Hayes 表示,这种政策组合虽然不是传统意义上的量化宽松(QE),但对比特币等固定供给资产将具有同等的上涨推动力。 他预测,在特朗普支出法案通过、债务上限提升后,美国财政部将通过发行债券补充国库账户(TGA),短期可能对市场流动性造成压制,比特币或将在 10 万美元附近盘整,回调低点或在 9 万至 9.5 万美元区间。但到 9 月初流动性恢复后,将开启新一轮上涨。 Arthur Hayes 总结称,真正的稳定币叙事不在于 FinTech 公司,而是 TBTF 银行利用稳定币重构合规、成本和国债购买力的“金融武器化创新”。他建议投资者“做多比特币,做多摩根大通”,拥抱这一由财政部主导的新型流动性周期。
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