North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Up Ahead of Jobs Data

Dow Jones
Jul 02, 2025

OPENING CALL

Stock futures pointed to a higher open on Wednesday, building on Tuesday's mixed session.

Investors seemed unbothered by uncertainty regarding trade negotiations. Trump held firm on a July 9 deadline on tariffs Tuesday after the European Union's trade official said earlier talks could take place Wednesday or Thursday .

Market observers will tune in to the private-sector employment data from ADP later, a day after data showed the rate of job openings grew in May.

"Despite upbeat U.S. labour data, uncertainty around tariffs, rate policy, and fiscal stability kept markets volatile, while Thursday's U.S. jobs report looms as the next major catalyst," IG said.

Republicans in Washington Tuesday, meanwhile, narrowly passed Trumps' tax and spending bill , which is expected to add trillions of dollars to the federal deficit. The legislation now returns to the House.

Stocks to Watch

Tesla shares rose 1% ahead of its expected release of second-quarter deliveries.

Apple trades up 0.7% after analysts upgraded their rating on the company.

Centene slid 26% following the withdrawal of its fiscal-year earnings guidance.

Shares of the biggest U.S. banks modestly rose after announcing fresh plans for stock buybacks and dividends.

Verint Systems rose 12% after a report from Bloomberg that Thoma Bravo was negotiating the terms of a potential acquisition.

Constellation Brands shares fell 0.9% after its fiscal first-quarter earnings and sales missed analysts' estimates.

Paramount Global rose 0.7% after agreeing in principle to settle a lawsuit with President Trump.

Greenbrier Cos. rose 13% after fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue that rose.

UniFirst is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter earnings on Wednesday.

Watch For:

ADP National Employment Report for June; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Today's Headline/Must Reads:

- Netflix Explores Music Shows and Celebrity Interviews as Part of Live TV Push

- Why Vanguard, Champion of Low-Fee Investing, Joined the 'Private Markets' Craze

- China Is Quickly Eroding America's Lead in the Global AI Race

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar stayed steady against a basket of currencies after hitting a three year low Tuesday.

The euro could rise to the key $1.20 level if U.S. nonfarm payrolls data Thursday are weaker than expected, ING said.

Sterling fell against the dollar and rose against the euro as ING said that hints from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey at slowing quantitative tightening likely shielded sterling Tuesday.

Bonds:

Treasury yields edged higher as concerns over U.S. spending and tariffs remain.

"President Trump's tax and spending bill passed the Senate, stoking both growth hopes and fiscal concerns as it heads to the House," IG said.

The 10-year Treasury yield's downside bias seemed to be building, UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research, said.

Treasury yields reflect two to three interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, according to U.S. Bank Asset Management.

Term premiums on bonds have increased in major markets with rises noted in Japanese, U.S., and German bond markets.

Energy:

Oil prices were little changed as traders weighed expectations for a large OPEC+ output hike and uncertainty on tariffs and U.S. rate policy.

"We do not expect a large market reaction if OPEC8+ decides to increase production on Sunday as consensus has already shifted towards this outcome," Goldman Sachs said.

Metals:

Gold futures were broadly flat after rallying over the two prior sessions.

Spot gold fell as the rally in the precious metal seems to have run its course, BMI said.

   
 
 
   
 
 

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

 
 

Paramount Agrees to Pay $16 Million to Settle Lawsuit by Trump

Paramount Global said it has agreed in principle to pay $16 million to settle a lawsuit with President Trump over a "60 Minutes" interview with former Vice President Kamala Harris, the company said Tuesday.

The settlement, which doesn't include an apology, comprises payments made to the president's future presidential library and legal fees. Paramount also agreed that "60 Minutes" will release transcripts of interviews with presidential candidates in the future after they have aired, according to the company.

   
 
 

Alibaba Readies $7 Billion Boost for Commerce Unit, Plans New Data Centers

Alibaba Group is readying a $7 billion boost for its delivery and shopping platforms amid stiff competition in China.

The tech giant said Wednesday that it will offer 50 billion yuan, or about $6.98 billion, in coupons and vouchers over the next 12 months to get more businesses and consumers to use its delivery and e-commerce services in the domestic market.

   
 
 

India's Biggest IPO Receives Bumper Response on Debut

HDB Financial Services' shares soared on its debut, signaling strong investor interest in India's largest initial public offering of the year.

The non-banking financial firm raised nearly $1.5 billion from its IPO, and was priced at the top end of its guidance, reflecting investors' demand for exposure to one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

   
 
 

Tech Stocks Fall, Led by Tesla, and the Market Slips From All-Time High

Technology stocks fell Tuesday, weighing on a U.S. market coming off fresh record closing highs.

Megacap companies including Tesla and Nvidia drove the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lower, with Tesla dropping more than 5% after the feud between Elon Musk and President Trump spilled back into public view.

   
 
 

Trump Said Trade Deals Would Come Easy. Japan Is Proving Him Wrong.

After failing to cut a trade deal with Japan following weeks of talks, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer decided to turn up the pressure.

When Japanese officials arrived in Washington in late May, Lutnick and Greer warned them that if the two sides couldn't work out an agreement soon, the conversations might start shifting from easing the tariffs President Trump had recently imposed toward additional punitive measures, according to people familiar with the matter. The Americans said they might demand a cap on the number of vehicles Japan could export to the U.S.-a policy known as a voluntary export restriction.

   
 
 

Senate Passes Trump's Megabill After All-Night Session

WASHINGTON-Republicans squeaked President Trump's tax-and-spending megabill through the Senate on Tuesday, capping a long night of dealmaking to win over holdouts and ending with a tiebreaking vote from Vice President JD Vance.

The Senate's 51-50 action puts Republicans on the verge of locking in Trump's top legislative priorities: extended tax cuts, new tax breaks, reductions in Medicaid spending and more money for defense and border enforcement. They are using their full but narrow control of Congress to pull money from safety-net programs and the clean-energy industry and redirect it to national security and taxpayers' wallets.

   
 
 

Senate Passes Trump's Megabill After All-Night Session

WASHINGTON-Republicans squeaked President Trump's tax-and-spending megabill through the Senate on Tuesday, capping a long night of dealmaking to win over holdouts and ending with a tiebreaking vote from Vice President JD Vance.

The Senate's 51-50 action puts Republicans on the verge of locking in Trump's top legislative priorities: extended tax cuts, new tax breaks, reductions in Medicaid spending and more money for defense and border enforcement. They are using their full but narrow control of Congress to pull money from safety-net programs and the clean-energy industry and redirect it to national security and taxpayers' wallets.

   
 
 

U.S. Halts Key Weapons for Ukraine in New Sign of Weakening Support for Kyiv

WASHINGTON-The U.S. has stopped the delivery of air-defense interceptors and other weapons intended for Ukraine and is using them instead to beef up Pentagon stocks, a Trump administration official and two congressional aides said Tuesday.

The U.S. move to withhold arms deliveries earmarked for Ukraine reflects the Trump administration's slackening commitment to aiding Kyiv in its defense against Russia. Administration officials have stressed the need to focus more on the longer-term threats from China and, more immediately, military needs in the Middle East.

   
 
 

The Trump-Musk Feud Reignites Over Republicans' Megabill

WASHINGTON-The feud between President Trump and billionaire Elon Musk reignited this week, with the billionaire Tesla chief executive attacking Republicans' "big, beautiful bill" and pledging to start a new political party, and Trump threatening to use the power of the federal government to punish his former adviser.

Ahead of Senate passage of Trump's signature legislation, Musk, in a volley of social-media posts, argued the bill was fiscally irresponsible and said he would back primary challenges to Republican lawmakers who supported the legislation.

   
 
 

Satellite Images Capture Activity at Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site After U.S. Strikes

Satellite images show Iran has built a new access road at its Fordow uranium enrichment site and moved in construction equipment that could be used to assess the damage done to the key underground nuclear facility by last month's U.S. airstrike.

The imagery captured in recent days by Maxar Technologies, a commercial satellite company, shows a new road up the mountain where the Fordow nuclear facility is located along with a number of vehicles, including what analysts have identified as an excavator and a mobile crane.

   
 
 

Write to pierre.bertrand@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Nothing major scheduled

Economic Indicators $(ET)$:

0930 Canada Manufacturing PMI for June

Stocks to Watch:

Alpha Cognition Inc. Announces Positive Pre-Clinical Data for ALPHA-1062 Use in a Military Relevant Model of Repetitive Mild Traumatic Brain Injury; ALPHA-1062 Admin Reduced the Brain Levels of Three Toxic Forms of a Brain Protein Tau

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

July 02, 2025 06:12 ET (10:12 GMT)

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