摩根士丹利指出,香港5月总零售销售额按年增长2.4%,达到313亿港元(2025年4月按年下降2.3%),结束了自2024年3月以来连续14个月的按年收缩。这也超出了该行预估的按年下降2%。2025年前五个月零售销售额按年下降幅度继续收窄至4%(2025年前四个月为按年下降5.6%)。耐用消费品见大幅改善,但奢侈品零售销售仍在下降。 大摩预计,6月零售销售额按年增长1%,因失业率上升(2025年5月为3.5%)及近期餐饮和零售店关闭,导致该行对整体消费情绪仍持谨慎态度。尽管如此,新体育场举办的演唱会等大型活动及内地游客数量增加(2025年5月按年升19%,6月按年升12%)可能部分缓解这一情况。虽然该行对九龙仓置业和希慎兴业因租金负增长及商铺关闭而保持谨慎,但近期的14个月以来首个正增长的零售销售数据可能为其股价带来正面反应。
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