金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，总算力支出受到算力需求与成本的共同影响。随AI应用用户数量的不断增长及Agent的渗透不断提升，推理端算力需求不断上升；同时，由于硬件的迭代与infra算法的不断改进，模型推理的单位成本不断下降，模型推理价格目前已下降到2023年初的1/100以下，目前市场对未来推理端算力支出节奏存在分歧。本报告旨在提供一个推理算力需求从用户渗透到Token调用、再到硬件支出的分析框架，该机构通过对Google与微软（OpenAI）未来Token调用量、算力总需求和未来硬件支出节奏的测算，得出结论：推理算力需求增长速度快于单位算力成本的降低。该机构持续看好推理端算力需求的加速增长。
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