海通国际研报指出，消费结构加速转型，政策影响短空长多。当前白酒行业仍处于供需再平衡阶段，由量价齐升转向以价补量。15-23年，山西汾酒总营收/归母净利润复合增速分别为29.1%/45.5%，稳居白酒行业增速领先地位。24年正式锁定行业营收前三。25年作为汾酒复兴纲领第二阶段的开局之年，公司以“稳健压倒一切”为总基调，淡化增速目标，强化盈利质量。通过玻汾控量、老白汾上量、青花20放量、青花26/30增量的四轮驱动策略，实现全价格带覆盖和市场的纵深突破。盈利能力领跑行业，现金流表现整体强劲。省内持续巩固基本盘，省外2.0纵深突破。参考可比公司估值水平，同时考虑公司产品、区域分布相对均衡，业绩增长稳健，给予公司25年20xPE，目标价210元，维持“优于大市”评级。
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