Investors more bullish on Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) this week as stock rises 5.4%, despite earnings trending downwards over past five years

Simply Wall St.
07 Jul

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. Long term Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX:ALL) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 180% in five years. It's also good to see the share price up 18% over the last quarter. But this move may well have been assisted by the reasonably buoyant market (up 13% in 90 days).

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Aristocrat Leisure investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Aristocrat Leisure actually saw its EPS drop 6.4% per year.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.

We doubt the modest 1.3% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. On the other hand, Aristocrat Leisure's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 10% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:ALL Earnings and Revenue Growth July 6th 2025

Aristocrat Leisure is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Aristocrat Leisure in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

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What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Aristocrat Leisure the TSR over the last 5 years was 201%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Aristocrat Leisure shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 35% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 25%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. Before spending more time on Aristocrat Leisure it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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