The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1537 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle near flat with little change in the weather outlook. National demand will be "decently strong" the next five days with high temperatures across much of the U.S., NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Still keeping a lid on prices are comfortable storage levels, with inventories 173 Bcf above the five-year average "and supplies being refilled at record pace the past few months," the forecaster says. "We view $3.50 as an important level bulls would need to conquer to gain momentum, especially after such strong selling the past two weeks." Nymex natural gas settles up 0.1% at $3.412/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1512 ET - Oil futures shake off the initial negative reaction to OPEC+ further accelerating the return of production to settle higher. "Crude futures remain in a consolidation-type trade," BOK Financial's Dennis Kissler says in a note. While the 548,000 barrels a day output increase for August was a bit above expectations for 411,000 barrels a day, "I believe the record travel seen over the holiday weekend is being factored in the market as well," he says. He notes that OPEC+ exports have been behind expectations, while traders expect that "excess production will be met by stronger demand." WTI settles up 1.4% at $67.93 a barrel and Brent gains 1.9% to $69.58 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1433 ET - Gold futures settle virtually unchanged, with the front-month contract closing at $3,332.20 a troy ounce. Investors are unsure about the near-term direction for gold prices, with tariff-related uncertainty building but the U.S. dollar pushing higher today. "Gold is chopping around unchanged as the battle between safe haven flows and the reverse correlation to the dollar play out," says Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA in a note. The U.S. dollar index climbed throughout the day, and is up 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1422 ET - The tariffs of 25% on Japan and South Korea may hit U.S. corn demand. That's because both countries are major buyers of U.S. ag exports. According to data from the USDA, Japan has committed to purchasing over 12 million metric tons of U.S. corn this marketing year. South Korea is on the books for 5.9 million tons of corn. That's up from this time last year, supporting elevated corn shipments out of U.S. ports reported by the USDA this year. The implementation of tariffs by the U.S. may put these corn sales at risk, says AgResource in a note. "Retaliation could follow if a trade fight breaks out," says the firm. Corn is down 3.7%, soybeans drop 2.8%, and wheat falls 1.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1417 ET - Grain traders were anticipating a major ag-related announcement when President Trump said that he would be giving a speech in Iowa last week. But that speech came and went without any market-changing news, which is a source of pressure seen in CBOT futures throughout the day. "I think non-threatening weather and the disappointment regarding Trump's speech in Iowa are weighing heavy on futures," says Linda Meyer of Agrisource. Meyer adds that algo trading is in control of the market today, claiming that the current supply-and-demand fundamentals for U.S. grains "really don't support such a drop." Corn falls 3.7%, soybeans are down 2.8%, and wheat is off 1.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1325 ET -- Investors are increasingly making bets on restaurants that have lagged in recent years, like Cracker Barrel, Dave & Buster's and Bloomin' Brands, UBS analysts say in a note. Investors appear to be encouraged by recent sales momentum and earnings that are set up to beat expectations, the analysts say. Restaurant hiring also gained steam in June, reflecting continued recovery in the industry after pressure earlier in the year, they say. Risks remain, though, with sales at small business restaurants slowing last month and recent surveys showing consumers plan to cut back on restaurant spending, they note. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1325 ET - The bottom line for agricultural giant ADM may see a sizable boost from more-supportive soybean crush margins, says a note from Jefferies. "The strength in crush margins is driven by strong RVOs proposed by the EPA as well [as] increased incentives to use domestic feedstock for biofuels," says the firm. Jefferies adds that the USDA forecasts record-high soybean crush volume this year, driven by biofuel and animal feed demand--which may bolster revenue for ADM. The company has reported that lower export sales made crush margins for soy considerably weaker. Soyoil futures on the CBOT are down 1.4%, but have gained roughly 35% year-to-date. Corn is down 3.6% in afternoon trading, while soybeans slip 2.7% and wheat falls 1.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1229 ET - Power-sector natural gas use was below year-ago levels despite the heat wave across the East and Midwest at the end of June, "highlighting the impact of higher gas prices, rising renewables, and a shifting generation stack," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "The dip in demand despite similar weather suggests that price sensitivity and structural changes are capping gas usage during peak load events." But the market remains reactive to weather forecasts, "particularly in Texas, where any meaningful heat wave could tighten balances quickly," he adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.1% at $3.447/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1141 ET - Gold futures fall, though they remain in a relatively tight range. Futures are down 0.4% at $3,329.10 a troy ounce, having fallen as low as $3,404.40/oz earlier in the session, though they sit up 0.6% on week. The precious metal is caught in a tug-of-war between persistent safe-haven demand and a stronger U.S. dollar, FP Markets' Aaron Hill says in a note. President Trump's Aug. 1 tariff deadline, delayed from July 9, is fueling uncertainty, strengthening the dollar's competing safe-haven characteristics and capping gold's upside, Hill writes. Still, the yellow metal's gains of more than 26% year-to-date reflects its role as a hedge against trade-war concerns and potential stagflation, as well as central bank demand signaling long-term bullishness, Hill says. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1140 ET - Base metal prices fall, with LME three-month copper down 0.35% at $9,818.0 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.9% at $2,573.0 a ton. Metals are being pressured lower by a stronger U.S. dollar, which has gained on relief that the reimposition of so-called "reciprocal" tariffs by the Trump administration may be delayed to Aug. 1 for countries that haven't yet secured a trade deal. The initial self-imposed deadline from the administration was Wednesday. A stronger U.S. dollar makes it more expensive for international purchasers to buy dollar-denominated commodities. Still, copper and aluminum are higher on month, bolstered by signs of stronger Mainland Chinese demand and traders rushing copper to the U.S. in order to beat a potential copper import tariff. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

1130 ET - The prompt physical oil market remains steady, supported by robust refinery activity, relatively low inventories and seasonal inventory drawdowns, according to analysts at DNB. However, seasonal and structural effects are expected to weaken oil demand growth in the coming months, with excess supply likely starting to emerge in August. "Declining U.S. rig count and aggressive pricing by Saudi for August barrels have given confidence to the oil bulls," Helge Andre Martinsen and Tobias Ingebrigtsen say. However, "we believe we are on the brink of rolling into more structural softness over the next few months." DNB estimates Brent crude at an average of $58 a barrel in the fourth quarter, from $69 a barrel currently. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1118 ET - BNP Paribas lowered its year-end Brent crude forecast, citing resilient U.S. shale output and weaker-than-expected impact of sanctions on Iranian production. U.S. producers took advantage of favorable prices by selling long-dated oil futures, shifting the market from contango--where prices are expected to rise over time--to backwardation, where prices are expected to be higher sooner due to tighter supply. "These additional hedges make U.S. shale producers less sensitive to lower crude prices than before," says Aldo Spanjer, head of energy strategy at BNP. Brent is now projected at $55 a barrel, down $5 from previous expectations. Next year, crude markets should recover as supply growth from both OPEC and non-OPEC moderates, according to Spanjer. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 07, 2025 16:15 ET (20:15 GMT)

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