高盛研究报告指，基于近期的地缘政治事件，次季布伦特油价已达每桶67美元，高于该行早前预计的65美元。而国有企业炼油厂的减产，加上独立炼油厂的低使用率，令本地油产品库存下降，以致在需求疲弱下，次季炼油利润仍高过预期。基于次季油价下跌20%，该行预期中石油(00857.HK) 及中石化(00386.HK) 净收入分别按年跌30%及46%，而中海油(00883.HK) 上半年净收入则跌16%。
该行继续看好中石油及中海油，将中石油目标价由8元升至8.3元，将中海油目标价由20元升至20.9元，均予“买入”评级，预期两者2026财年自由现金流收益率(FCF Yield)均有双位数，收益率在同行中较高，且估值亦较国际同行平均水平低。假设布伦特油价为每桶60美元，两者收益率仍分别有10%及9%。
另外，该行维持中石化的“中性”评级及目标价3.7元，因预期集团自由现金流收益率较弱，基于化工行业持续过剩，以及资本开支高企，令该行更看好上游企业。(ss/w)
(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-07-07 12:25。)
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