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研报掘金丨中金：调高港交所盈利预测，目标价调高至465港元

格隆汇
Jul 08, 2025

中金发表报告称，当前港股资产与资金结构已较过往“传统行业主导、境外机构主导”格局发生显著改变，认为“资产+资金”持续变革有望从资产体量、估值、换手率三个维度打开港股成交活跃度中长期增长空间。上调港交所(0388.HK)盈利预测，将目标价调高至465港元。 中金指出，“A+H”上市与中概潜在回流催生优质资产增量，“新经济”权重提升撬动估值及换手中枢。有望持续为港股注入优质企业，进而吸纳增量流动性，未来港股新经济股市值占比将进一步提升，也有望推动港股估值上移及交易活跃提升。假设当前符合要求且未返港中概股全部回港上市，叠加已回港二次/双重上市企业交易持续回流，则中概股潜在回流或可增厚港股总市值约4.2万亿港元、占港股当前总市值约10%，日均成交额406亿港元、占今年以来日均成交额约17%。 中金将今年日均成交额预测，由1750亿港元上调至约2100亿港元，明年则由1978亿港元，升至2420亿港元。港交所今年盈利预测升5.67%，至152.6亿港元，明年盈利预测调高6.97%，至165.86亿港元。未来10年港股日均成交额年复合增长料14%，其中预测港股总市值年复合增长12%，换手率中枢提升贡献年化2%增速、由今年129%提升至2035年162%，对应港交所未来10年净利润年复合增长为12%。

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