智通财经APP获悉,锂业股午后走高,截至发稿,天齐锂业(09696)涨6.23%,报30.7港元;赣锋锂业(01772)涨3.24%,报25.5港元。
消息面上,中央财经委会议提出依法治理企业低价无序竞争、推动落后产能退出,供给侧改革预期升温。国泰海通证券认为,目前碳酸锂正处于市场情绪推动下的超跌反弹阶段,强预期与弱现实博弈,短期锂价或延续宽幅震荡格局,但难有大幅连续上行机会。
国盛证券则指出,在需求端无超预期增长的情况下,市场达到供需平衡需要供给侧去产能,需要经历“减产-减少 Capex-亏利润-亏现金-停产/破产-被收购整合”。当前产业对需求端中长期增长维持乐观,消耗前期现金储备以待行业好转;同时低成本盐湖及中资一体化企业入场后,供给端抗价格波动能力增强,“囚徒困境”下行业拐点或有后移。但若锂价维持低位中枢,可期待供给侧加速出清,权益端或有提前反应。
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