金吾财讯 | 国元国际认为，上周美国总统特朗普威胁发出加税通知，叠加中东地缘风险持续发酵，全球避险情绪升温。港股作为离岸市场，对国际政治风险敏感度较高，外资短期流出压力增大。行业政策方面，工信部上周发布了《移动互联网应用服务用户权益保护合规管理指南》，要求平台保障用户知情权、限制算法滥用，市场预期新规可能增加互联网企业数据安全投入，短期对盈利预期造成负面影响，尤其会影响依赖用户数据的平台广告业务。美股方面，首先劳动力市场表现超预期，失业率连续3个月下降，缓解了对经济衰退的担忧。“大而美法案”在参众两院通过，市场对该法案解读为政府刺激经济增长的信号。综上，港股互联网板块下跌是宏观避险情绪升温、行业竞争恶化、资金结构转向防御及政策监管收紧共同作用的结果。板块估值虽处于历史低位，但短期盈利下修压力仍需消化。投资者需密切关注美联储政策动向、二季报业绩情况及AI商业化进展。目前建议关注连连数字(02598)、顺丰同城(09699)、美兰空港(00357)，美股建议软消费相关标的，包括Doordash(DASH.US)、SPOTIFY(SPOT.US)、GRAB(GRAB.US)。
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