港股异动 | 机构看好肉奶景气共振上行优然牧业(09858)涨超8% 现代牧业(01117)涨超5%

智通财经

Jul 10, 2025

智通财经APP获悉，奶牛养殖标的今日继续走高，截至发稿，优然牧业(09858)涨8.42%，报3.22港元；现代牧业(01117)涨5.56%，报1.14港元。

国信证券表示，奶牛养殖公司受益于肉奶景气共振，具备较高的盈利弹性修复空间。奶牛养殖业务经营每年正常淘汰率约30%左右，因此原奶企业每年都会卖大量奶牛，而淘汰奶牛价格与牛肉价格正相关，涨幅类同。港股的奶牛养殖公司报表将该业务损益通过公允价值计量，并没有在主营业务收入中直接体现，该行认为该业务是奶牛养殖公司永续经营的一部分，且影响公司现金流，未来伴随肉牛价格反转，卖牛收益弹性显现，公司现金流有望同步向好，因此应对卖牛收益给予价值重估。

国金证券指出，截至6月30日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格26.55元/公斤，环比增加0.1%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至6月27日主产区合同内外平均收购价为3.04元/公斤，环比不变，同比减少7.03%，奶价下跌幅度持续放缓，散奶价在2.3元出场附近止稳。该行预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在25H2有望企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启。

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