金吾财讯 | 中信证券点评物价数据：2025年6月PPI同比回落至-3.6%，下跌速度和幅度再次超出市场预期。上游行业中，原油、有色金属价格虽在外部环境变化下明显改善，但内需定价的黑色建材商品价格仍然显着偏弱，特别是水泥价格同比跌幅较大，这也成为市场高估6月PPI同比的重要因素之一。中下游行业中，6月阶段性抢出口需求支撑下以汽车制造业为代表的“出口链行业”PPI同比出现改善，后续出口链行业将面临“供给侧反内卷政策落地效果”和“需求侧出口下行压力”的双向影响，值得市场高度关注。“猪周期错位”开启背景下，CPI同比读数却逆势回升至+0.1%，超出市场预期，鲜菜、能源、其他用品和服务的超预期上涨是CPI超预期的核心驱动力。综合评估当前整体的物价环境，该机构估算6月份国内综合物价指数约为-1.08%，较5月份的-1.16%小幅回升，但绝对值仍在低位徘徊，反映出“低物价”的环境仍然较为显着。促进物价温和回暖，仍需供给侧与需求侧政策联合发力。
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